Supply cap adjustments: sizing to real demand

Hello and welcome,

After gathering a little over six weeks of data post launch, I've taken a careful look at how cards are actually being rented and making an adjustment to per-card supply caps to better match current demand.

The short version:

• 60 of the highest-demand cards get their supply cap raised from 5 to 6, giving an extra lender per card the opportunity to deposit and earn.
• ~1,500 lower-demand cards have their cap reduced from 5 to 4. This is a forward-looking change, no existing listings are removed, and no rentals are affected.
• Scheduled to execute Sunday, May 17 at 11:00 PM Pacific (Monday May 18 at 06:00 UTC).

High Level Methodology

I pulled six weeks of rental data per card and quality combination and looked at two metrics:

• Average utilization across the full six weeks. How much of the supply cap was actually being rented out on average.
• Peak utilization in the most recent two weeks. Recent demand that might not show up clearly in the average.

I compared those numbers to a rarity-aware target: at the current cap of 5, a legendary should sit around or above 80% utilization (always at least 1 spare for deck builders), and a common/rare/epic should sit around or above 60% (always at least 2 spare). I want to gradually adjust supply such that it falls in to the above shape. This structure can adapt as the platform grows and is predictable for both renters and lenders but isn't set in stone. I will be evaluating if it needs changing periodically.

From there:

• Raise to 6 if the card meets its target on average and the cap is currently binding (all 5 copies listed), or if recent two-week peaks are at or above 60% utilization. Either signal indicates that an extra slot would meaningfully add liquidity without sitting idle and overwhelm current demand.
• Reduce to 4 if the card is well below its target across the window, or if the proto × quality has deposited copies that have never been rented during the six weeks.
• Leave alone for cards in the middle band, supply matches demand reasonably well.

What happens to cards currently over the new cap

When a card's cap drops from 5 to 4 and there are currently 5 lenders, the existing 5 listings stay live. The cap is enforced at deposit time, and I'm choosing to not take action to bring listing counts in line with the cap this time. That means no listing is force-removed, no rental is interrupted, no lender is asked to withdraw. Over time, I expect lenders will naturally prune under utiized assets and intend to provide them additional information to make identifying these assets easy. This should result in a gradual adjustment towards our new cap.

In a future release, once the upcoming lending dashboard work is complete, lenders with low-likelihood-to-rent listings will see a clear flag on their dashboard so they can decide whether to free up the deposit slot themselves. While I don't plan on auto-ejecting any assets at this time, if after a few cycles of adjustments the active listings deviates significantly from the intended cap this may change.

When this happens

A countdown banner at the top of every page will tick down to execution. Once the change is live, the banner will disappear.

The full list of cards getting more room

Sixty cards are being raised from a cap of 5 to 6, viewable below.

What's next

This is the first of several data-driven adjustments I'm working on, and supply adjustments will be an ongoing and eventually automated occurence. The upcoming lending dashboard rework will give every lender a per-card performance view, suggested pricing based on rental market data, and tools to evaluate which of your listings are pulling their weight. Stay tuned for that release soon!

A few links to get you started:

Need help?

If you have questions or want to discuss the methodology, join our official Discord — that's the only place I provide support.

Happy renting!

• Apocalypse